January 3-7, Sydney Cricket Ground
Start time 1030 (2330 GMT)
Before this series began, the odds of a 5-0 win to Australia were about
the same as of Bangladesh winning next year's World Cup. But Michael
Clarke's men enter the Sydney Test on the verge of completing a clean
sweep. England came to Australia with the Ashes in their possession and a
sense of stability around their squad. Whatever happens over the next
five days, they will leave these shores without the urn and without any
real idea of how to fix their problems.
Graeme Swann has retired mid-tour, the vice-captain Matt Prior has been
dropped, Jonathan Trott has spent most of the series at home, their only
centurion has been the new boy Ben Stokes, they don't have a batsman in
the top five series run scorers, they have only one bowler averaging
under 30. They're a rabble, and even if they avoid a 5-0 defeat this
result should hurt more than the 2006-07 clean sweep, for that was
against champions like Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist.
This Australian outfit has been cobbled together after a period of
retirements, experiments and abandonments. In recent years, Australia's
Test team has been changed as often as a baby's nappy and sometimes
produced similar results. That was certainly the case in India in
February-March, when they were humiliated 4-0 on the field and
embarrassed off it. Their success in this Ashes campaign is all the
sweeter for it. It remains possible that Australia may take the same XI
into all five Tests in the series, which would be a first.
Not every question has been answered for the Australians, who have a
three-Test tour of South Africa in a month's time. Most notably, the
No.6 position occupied in this series by George Bailey could be up for
grabs after this series. If Bailey plays at the SCG and fails, he can
hardly be retained. Whatever happens, though, this squad has achieved
everything that was asked of it. Australia have the Ashes and will get
their hands on the (replica) urn after this Sydney Test. It's now just a
question of 5-0, 4-0 or 4-1.
Form guide
Australia: WWWWD
England: LLLLD
Players to watch
Before the Ashes began, Michael Clarke predicted that Mitchell Johnson
could be the Player of the Series, so well was he bowling. Brad Haddin
has a strong claim to the award but it will take something remarkable
for Johnson not to win it. Already he has been Man of the Match in three
of the four Tests. Johnson has 31 wickets for the series and he needs
only four more to break the Australian record for most wickets by a fast
bowler in a five-Test Ashes, and seven to break Bill Whitty's record of
37 for most by an Australian fast bowler in any five-Test series, set
against South Africa in 1910-11. Clarrie Grimmett's all-time Australian
record of 44 wickets in a series is probably safe, but the way Johnson
is going, nothing is certain.
Last week, Scott Borthwick
was getting ready to head off to Sri Lanka with England Lions after his
stint with the Sydney grade side Northern District. Now, he's almost
certain of making his Test debut at the SCG. Swann's retirement,
combined with a calf injury sustained by Monty Panesar at training,
should mean Borthwick is given a chance at Test level. Borthwick has
four first-class centuries to his name but unlike Australians such as
Steven Smith and Cameron White, he considers himself a legspinner who
can bat a bit. If he plays, Borthwick will be the fourth spinner used by
England in the space of six Tests, after Swann, Panesar and Simon
Kerrigan.
Team news
It is not out of the realms of possibility that Australia will play the
same XI for the fifth consecutive Test and there is a strong push from
the players to complete the series with the team intact. Shane Watson's
groin niggle and Ryan Harris' general soreness could be the catalysts
for conservatism, with a South African Test tour in a month. Nathan
Coulter-Nile will be a direct replacement for Harris if he is ruled out,
while Watson's ability to bowl may determine whether James Faulkner and
No.3 Alex Doolan play, and thus whether Bailey can retain his spot. But
there would be something very special about completing a 5-0 win with
only 11 players, and it may yet happen.
Australia (possible) 1 Chris Rogers, 2 David Warner, 3 Shane
Watson, 4 Michael Clarke (capt), 5 Steven Smith, 6 George Bailey, 7 Brad
Haddin (wk), 8 Mitchell Johnson, 9 Peter Siddle, 10 Ryan Harris, 11
Nathan Lyon.
"Yes, we could do. Certainly there will be some changes," Alastair Cook
said when asked if England might play three debutants at the SCG. Such a
scenario might have seemed laughable before the series but it's now
anyone's guess what England's best XI is. Gary Ballance is likely to be
included, given England's poor batting throughout the series, and it
might be that Michael Carberry makes way with Joe Root to move up to
open and Ian Bell to No.3. The legspinning allrounder Borthwick would
also strengthen England's batting if he replaces Panesar, while Boyd
Rankin could be given a chance at the expense of Tim Bresnan. But,
really, who would know?
England (possible) 1 Alastair Cook (capt), 2 Joe Root, 3 Ian
Bell, 4 Kevin Pietersen, 5 Gary Ballance, 6 Ben Stokes, 7 Jonny Bairstow
(wk), 8 Scott Borthwick, 9 Stuart Broad, 10 James Anderson, 11 Boyd
Rankin.
Pitch and conditions
Two days out from the match, the pitch appeared to have more grass on it
than a normal Sydney surface and it is expected to offer some
assistance for the fast bowlers. The forecast throughout the match
ranges from 22C to 27C with the possibility of occasional light showers,
but rain shouldn't play too much of a part.
Should Australia win in Sydney it will complete their third 5-0 Ashes clean sweep, after 1920-21 and 2006-07
If Australia name an unchanged side it will be the first time they have ever used the same XI throughout a five-Test series
In the event of a draw or an Australian win, Australia
will jump from fifth to third on the ICC Test rankings and England would
drop from third to fourth. An England win would leave England third and
Australia would move up from fifth to fourth
Quotes
"Experiencing the highs and lows has made us stronger as a team and
that's why you see everyone so excited when we've won, because we have
been through such a long, lean patch. It is certainly a nice change."
Michael Clarke, Australia's captain
"When we left England, we had high hopes of doing something very
special. I did say at the time, we'd have to play some very good cricket
if we wanted to achieve that and we haven't done that."
Alastair Cook, England's captain
